Archive 12

“Can Exercise Kakadu Keep Countries from Conflict?”

Recent analysis from Asia & The Pacific Policy Society considers whether Australia’s recently-concluded multinational Exercise Kakadu can help keep countries in the India-Pacific region from conflict. A related podcast from the same website considers South China Sea strategy, naval security and the changing balance of power in regional orders this week. There is also a related lecture hosted by the Australian Institute for International Affairs on 10 October 2018 considering the decline of Western influence on the global order which may be of note for readers; and see this interview questioning the neutrality of international law as traditional Western approaches increasingly come under pressure.

East Asia Forum: “ASEAN Needs to Unify its Counter-Terrorism Strategy”

A new article on the East Asia Forum suggests that ASEAN needs to address the significant security risks posed (inter alia) by returning ISIS combatants, as the terrorist organisation continues to lose ground in Iraq and Syria and faces likely wipeout in the impending Battle of Idlib. Relatedly, a recent article from Foreign Policy queries whether it is time to initiate peace talks with ISIS and Al Qaeda – see here.

War on the Rocks: “How India Will React to the Rise of China”

A new article published by War on the Rocks – as part of its broader “Southern (Dis)comfort” series on Southern Asia – contemplates whether Sino-Indian relations will develop into a new rivalry akin to that of India/Pakistan, or transform into a relationship of friendly competition and mutual accommodation. The article concludes: To counter China effectively, the United States, […]

Relatedly, the East Asia Forum has recently published an article suggesting that the Ind0-Pacific is “big enough” for both China and India – see here.

New ICRC blog posts: the Montreux Document and prohibitions on nuclear weapons

Two new posts on the ICRC’s Humanitarian Law & Policy blog commemorate the anniversaries of the Montreux Document and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The first post is written by Tilman Rodenhäuser and Jonathan CuĂ©noud, and marks the 1o-year anniversary of the Montreux Document on Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs). It suggests that PMSCs will continue to be used in the future, but that the Montreux Document has contributed to them no longer operating in a “legal void”. Relatedly, a recent article on Foreign Policy suggests that future conflicts will be waged by criminals and terrorists, and encourages strategic rethinking in this domain.

The second article is a personal reflection by Helen Durham on the 1-year anniversary of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons being opened for signature:

Chatham House Expert Comment: Bolton’s ICC attack may backfire

A new expert comment on the Chatham House website by Max du Plessis SC analyses the recent speech by US National Security Adviser John Bolton, and suggests that it may actually strengthen support for the ICC from other states. The speech was self-described as a major announcement on US policy towards the ICC, as previously […]

New EJIL: Talk! blog post on Jordan’s ICC Bashir Appeal

On Monday 10 September, the ICC Appeals Chamber began its hearings in Jordan’s appeal against the Pre-Trial Chamber’s decision that Jordan failed to comply with its obligations under the Rome Statute by failing to arrest Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir when he visited Jordan in 2017 to attend the Arab League Summit. A new EJIL: Talk! blog post by Talita de Souza Dias analyses these recent hearings, and suggests […]

Rain Liivoja featured on The Conversation

APCML Academic Member Rain Liivoja was recently featured on The Conversation, writing on the topic: “Why it’s so hard to reach an international agreement on killer robots”. His article discusses the recent failure to reach a ban on lethal autonomous weapons systems at the Group of Governmental Experts meeting in Geneva, and examines the difficult reasons […]

CrisisWatch August 2018 Report

The International Crisis Group’s “CrisisWatch” conflict tracking overview for August 2018 is now available. Deteriorated situations include:  Chad--Ethiopia--Uganda--Zimbabwe--Russia/North Caucasus--Venezuela--Syria--Libya Improved situations include: None

Update: developments in Yemen and Syria

In recent developments relating to the ongoing conflict in Yemen:

  • Foreign Policy reports that the US will continue supporting airstrikes against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Syria.
  • Crisis Group considers whether the Yemen Peace process is returning to life, after experiencing recent difficulties last week as reported by APCML.

And in Syria:

  • Foreign Policy reports that the US is apparently increasing threats of military action against the Assad regime, and argues that the US and Turkey should work together to avoid an impending humanitarian disaster in Idlib.
  • A recent report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, released on 12 September, claims that three government attacks on rebel-held regions in the past six months incorporated chemical weapons, taking the total number of such attacks to 40 in the seven-year conflict.
  • Crisis Group has recently considered the feasibility of prospects for a deal to stabilise Syria’s North East region.
  • UN News reports that a record 1 million Syrians were displaced over 6 months this year, during 6 key battles.

Foreign Policy Magazine: “The Future of War”

The Fall 2018 edition of Foreign Policy magazine is devoted to the overarching topic of “the future of war”. Various interesting articles are included in this volume, including: “Food Fight” – suggests that the next major conflict will be fought over fish. “In Cyberwar, There Are No Rules” – argues that the world desperately needs “digital Geneva Conventions” “Why […]

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