Probability – its origins and its future in determining human futures in technology
Probability, or the likelihood of cause, was born at a particular moment in time, and has grown to become almost unquestioningly applied in technical systems. During the 20th Century probabilities invaded every kind of thought and action, from the price we pay to insurance to, in some places, whether we get arrested. More recently, even though we have not seen a pandemic of this scale and do not have accurate data, probability is driving our response to COVID.
Before the 17th Century, there was no real concept of probability. Inductive reasoning, statistical inference, and probability are products of a particular political, theological and economical context that shape their subsequent use and development even until today and into the future. This research will explore the origins, values, and challenges posed by current uses of probability, as well as lessons that can be learned for how it is used in technology, with direct impact on real people’s lives and health, today.
Kobi Leins, Senior Research Fellow in Digital Ethics